AI and automation are transforming the fulfilment industry at a rapid pace. With increasing investment and adoption, will these technologies become the dominant labour force in fulfilment by 2030, or will manual processes still play a crucial role?
The Acceleration of AI & Automation in Fulfilment (2021-2024)
AI and automation are already transforming warehousing, logistics, and order fulfilment, driven by:
- Labour shortages creating pressure for automation.
- eCommerce growth increasing fulfilment speed expectations.
- Cost-saving incentives for companies investing in AI-driven efficiency.
Based on current adoption trends and industry reports, we can project how AI and robotics will reshape fulfilment operations by 2030.
Investment in AI & Automation (2025-2030)
AI and automation are now core priorities for logistics and fulfilment centres, with businesses increasing investments year-on-year to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and keep up with eCommerce demand.
Existing Data: AI Investment Trends (2023-2025)
- 2023: 55% of businesses increased supply chain investment, prioritising AI and automation (SCW Magazine).
- This marked a significant rise from pre-pandemic levels, where automation was seen as a long-term investment rather than an immediate necessity.
- Labour shortages, rising costs, and increasing eCommerce expectations have accelerated AI adoption, particularly in inventory tracking, warehouse robotics, and demand forecasting.
- 2025: 53% of executives plan to significantly increase AI investment (Supplychain247).
- This aligns with the growing need for predictive analytics, robotics, and AI-driven logistics platforms.
- AI investment is no longer just for large players like Amazon, Ocado, and JD.com—mid-sized warehouses and 3PL providers are now automating to remain competitive.
Projections: AI & Automation Growth (2027-2030)
- 2027: Over 75% of fulfilment centres expected to be at least partially AI-managed.
- Why this projection?
- Based on the current investment trajectory, AI adoption is moving from early adopters (large fulfilment centres) to mid-market players.
- 3PL providers are rapidly integrating automated picking systems, machine learning for inventory management, and AI-powered robotics.
- By 2027, AI-driven fulfilment will no longer be a competitive advantage but a necessity to meet efficiency demands.
- Why this projection?
- 2030: AI projected to handle over 90% of warehouse logistics.
- Why this projection?
- Current AI investments are focused on scalability, meaning companies are not just testing AI but fully implementing it across supply chains.
- By 2030, warehouse automation will likely be the standard, rather than an optional investment.
- AI will handle order processing, predictive logistics, warehouse navigation, and supply chain forecasting, with minimal human oversight.
- Why this projection?
What’s Driving This Growth of Investment?
- eCommerce Demand: Consumers expect faster, more accurate deliveries, making AI-powered fulfilment a necessity.
- Cost-Saving Incentives: AI reduces labour costs, fulfilment errors, and inefficiencies—driving return on investment.
- AI Advancements: AI systems are improving predictive analytics, robotics, and warehouse automation, making investment more attractive.
By 2030, AI-driven fulfilment will be the industry norm, not the exception. Businesses that fail to adopt AI will struggle to compete on efficiency and cost, while early adopters will continue refining and expanding their AI-driven logistics operations.
Projected Growth in AI-Powered Transportation & Logistics (2025-2030)
One of the biggest indicators of this shift is the growth in service robot sales within the transportation and logistics sector, which plays a key role in automated goods movement within fulfilment centres.
- Service robot sales for transportation & logistics increased by 44% in 2022, rising from 60,000 in 2021 to 86,000 in 2022 (IFR, Logiwa).
- In 2023, 113,000 service robots were sold, marking a 35% YoY increase.
- 2024 estimates suggest 140,000 sales, as adoption continues to expand.
This surge reflects how AI-powered logistics and robotics are becoming essential for meeting demand in modern supply chains.
Service Robot Sales in the Logistics Sector (2021-2030)
Service robots are primarily used in automating warehouse transportation, reducing reliance on human labour for goods movement, sorting, and loading.
While early adoption was led by major eCommerce giants, the coming years will see wider industry adoption, including 3PLs and mid-sized fulfilment centres.
Why These Projections?
- Growth in AI-driven fulfilment is following a declining YOY trend as early adopters (Amazon, Ocado, JD.com) complete their automation rollouts.
- Saturation is expected by 2029-2030, when most warehouses that can automate will have already done so.
- Steady but lower growth from 2027-2030 will be driven by smaller warehouses and replacements of aging robotic systems.
AI & Robotics in Fulfilment Centres & Warehouse Automation in the UK (2025-2030)
While service robots in transportation and logistics primarily focus on moving goods, AI within fulfilment centres is revolutionising inventory management, picking, sorting, and order processing.
The UK is experiencing a steady shift towards AI-powered fulfilment, driven by labour shortages, increasing eCommerce demand, and cost-saving efficiencies.
Existing Data: AI & Robotics in UK Warehouses (2023-2025)
- 2023: 45% of UK fulfilment centres had implemented AI-powered automation (Oplog).
- Adoption was concentrated among large retailers and logistics leaders investing in robotic picking, automated sorting, and AI-enhanced inventory tracking.
- AI-driven warehouse management systems began replacing traditional stock control and human decision-making in logistics planning.
- 2025: Over 50% of UK fulfilment centres expected to use AI in their operations.
- Growth is expanding beyond large-scale fulfilment centres to mid-sized warehouses and 3PL providers.
- AI is becoming more accessible and affordable, making adoption viable for companies previously hesitant due to costs.
Projections: AI & Robotics Expansion in UK Fulfilment (2027-2030)
- 2027: 70% of UK fulfilment centres expected to use AI-driven automation.
- Why this projection?
- AI adoption is accelerating due to lower costs, improved efficiency, and rising eCommerce demand.
- Mid-sized fulfilment centres and logistics providers will be in full automation mode, deploying AI for predictive inventory management and automated goods handling.
- AI-enhanced sorting and packing systems will become a standard for competitive fulfilment operations.
- Why this projection?
- 2030: Over 85% of UK fulfilment centres expected to be AI-assisted or fully automated.
- Why this projection?
- By 2030, AI-driven fulfilment will be a necessity, not an option, for companies handling large order volumes.
- Warehouse tasks (sorting, stock control, and order processing) will be AI-managed, with minimal human intervention.
- Predictive AI and machine learning will optimise warehouse workflows, reducing fulfilment errors and delivery delays.
- Companies that fail to integrate AI will struggle with inefficiencies and higher operational costs.
- Why this projection?
The Robots-to-Fulfilment-Warehouse Ratio: How AI is Scaling in UK Fulfilment Centres
Estimating the Number of Fulfilment Warehouses in the UK
The UK has a total of 423,000 warehouses as of 2023. However, not all warehouses serve fulfilment purposes—previous estimates from 2021 suggested that fulfilment centres accounted for 20% of UK warehouse occupancy.
Since 2021, the total square footage of UK fulfilment warehouses has grown by 42%, reflecting the continued expansion of e-commerce and third-party logistics (3PL) operations. Applying this growth rate to the 2021 estimate of ~69,340 fulfilment warehouses, we estimate that in 2024, there are approximately 98,463 fulfilment warehouses in the UK.
Robots in UK Fulfilment Warehouses
The use of automation and AI-driven robotics in fulfilment has surged. Industry data suggests that by 2025, the cumulative number of service robots deployed in logistics and fulfilment operations will reach 418,000 robots.
This means that, on average, each UK fulfilment warehouse will have approximately 4.25 robots by 2025, increasing to 7.52 robots by 2030, reflecting a strong shift toward automation in the sector.
Key AI Technologies Transforming UK Warehouses
- Automated Picking & Sorting Systems – AI-powered robotic arms for faster, more precise order fulfilment.
- AI-Powered Inventory Management – Predictive analytics for stock optimisation and replenishment.
- Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) – AI-driven warehouse navigation to replace manual stock transportation.
- AI-Enhanced Order Processing – Machine learning for error reduction, real-time adjustments, and faster fulfilment.
- Computer Vision & Machine Learning – AI-assisted quality control and damage detection in warehouses.
What’s Driving AI & Robotics Adoption in UK Fulfilment Centres?
- eCommerce Growth: AI automation is required to meet growing order volumes and faster shipping demands.
- Cost Reduction: AI eliminates inefficiencies, reducing fulfilment errors, labour costs, and order processing delays.
- Labour Shortages: AI offsets workforce shortages, ensuring warehouses maintain productivity despite staff limitations.
- AI Advancements: Robotics and machine learning algorithms are becoming more affordable and efficient.
- Sustainability: AI-driven warehouses are optimising inventory and energy use, reducing waste and carbon footprints.
AI-Driven Workforce Reduction vs. AI Job Creation (2025-2030)
The fulfilment, retail, and logistics sectors in the UK are rapidly integrating AI and automation to improve efficiency, reduce operational costs, and meet rising consumer expectations.
As a result, the traditional warehouse workforce is evolving, with fewer manual roles and an increasing need for AI specialists, robotics engineers, and data analysts.
AI’s Current Impact on UK Employment (2023-2025)
- Ocado has implemented its On Grid Robotic Pick (OGRP) system, allowing robots to take over picking and packing within fulfilment centres. This has extended operational hours and allowed workers to be redeployed into other roles (Ocado Group).
- John Lewis has introduced 60 automated robots in its Milton Keynes distribution centre, increasing storage capacity by 75% and reducing costs by £1 million. This automation has reduced reliance on manual stock handling (The Times).
- GXO Logistics is rolling out AI-driven Operator Eye technology across its UK warehouses to automate picking, sorting, and error detection, enhancing efficiency while shifting workforce demands towards AI supervision and robotics management (GXO).
- Superdry has integrated 46 autonomous robots into its distribution centre in Burton-upon-Trent, allowing faster order fulfilment and improved returns processing, reducing the need for manual warehouse labour (TechHQ).
- IKEA is using AI to optimise fulfilment operations by deploying micro-fulfilment centres (MFCs) where robots manage inventory, reducing human involvement in stock picking and packing (ERP Today).
- JD.com has announced plans to leverage AI to enhance efficiency and significantly reduce its manual workforce over the next decade. This aligns with industry-wide trends in automation, as companies shift towards AI-managed fulfilment. (SellerApp)
These examples illustrate how AI is reshaping job roles in fulfilment centres, gradually reducing reliance on manual workers while creating demand for AI-trained professionals.
Workforce Shift in AI-Driven Fulfilment (2027-2030)
As AI adoption increases, warehouse roles will continue to shift from traditional fulfilment tasks to AI-driven logistics oversight. Companies will increasingly require:
- AI Logistics Analysts – Monitoring AI-powered fulfilment systems to enhance efficiency.
- Automation Engineers – Managing and optimising warehouse robotics and automated sorting.
- Data Specialists – Overseeing real-time stock tracking and predictive inventory management.
- System Supervisors – Ensuring seamless AI-human workflow integration.
By 2030, AI-assisted fulfilment will be the industry norm, with workers transitioning from manual warehouse labour to AI-driven oversight and robotics maintenance.
While traditional warehouse jobs will decline, the demand for AI-trained professionals will continue to rise. Companies investing in reskilling and AI workforce training will be better positioned to manage this transition and maximise efficiency in AI-driven fulfilment centres.
Conclusion
By 2030, AI-powered fulfilment will be the industry standard, driven by labour shortages, rising eCommerce demand, and cost-saving incentives. Over 85% of UK fulfilment centres are expected to be AI-assisted or fully automated, making automation a necessity rather than an advantage.
While manual warehouse roles will decline, AI will create new opportunities in automation management, robotics maintenance, and AI-driven logistics. Businesses that invest in AI adoption and workforce reskilling will gain a competitive edge, while those that hesitate risk falling behind.
The shift towards AI-led fulfilment is no longer a question of if but how fast companies will adapt.
Sources:
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